Ziraat Times exclusive
Srinagar, July 10: Another rainfall spell in Jammu & Kashmir is likely to start from Tuesday evening, 10th July up to July 22nd, Ziraat Times weather monitoring indicates.
Is there a risk of floods?
Although the outlook for the coming 10 days or so indicates that rainfall activity is spread over several days, at this stage the exact intensity of rains over a certain period of time is hard to determine.
At this stage, the probability of continued rainfall activity stretching over several days without halt looks improbable. Hence no immediate threat of a flood.
Ziraat Times would continue to monitor the situation and inform the public about any change in the outlook.
How accurate would be this forecast?
While monsoon winds are likely to be marginal over most parts of J&K during this time, Jammu plains are likely to receive most precipitation through monsoon winds during this period.
What makes the extent of rainfall over Kashmir division hard to predict is the formation of local clouds and highly dynamic localised wind systems, Ziraat Times study of several weather parameters indicates.
Here is the detailed forecast:
On Tuesday evening, while Pahalgam vicitinities, parts of Pirpanjal mountain range, Ganderbal and Gurez mountains are likely to have thunderstorms, most of the valley would remain dry and humid.
Significant rainfall would occur across Pirpanjal range, Jammu plains and Kishtwar and Bhaderwah sub-regions. Pahalgam areas and parts of North Kashmir would receive heavy rains. Kashmir valley plains are likely to have scattered showers..
Neighboring states of Punjab and Haryana would also have heavy rains.
Thursday and Friday
Rains across both Kashmir and Jammu regions are likely to be widespread. Heavy to very heavy rains are likely in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and the neighbouring Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab.
On Saturday, at this stage the outlook is for only scattered showers in the mountains east and west of Kashmir valley.
Rainfall activity is expected to be low, mainly centered over lower Zanskar and Himalayan ranges east of Kashmir valley, including Kishtwar and Bhaderwah sub-regions.
On Monday, moderate to heavy rains are likely in Jammu plains, Pirpanjal region and Kishtwar and Bhaderwah sub-regions.
Tuesday would witness heavy rainfall in Jammu region, mainly in the plains of Jammu and Kathua districts.
It would be a day of rains across Kashmir valley plains and the mountains all around.
Again, a day of valley-wide rains. On this day rains in Jammu region could be heavy. Some major thunder storms in Pirpanjal areas are likely too.